60-INSTRUMENT UNIVERSE  ·  Intelligence Before the Market Opens
Last updated: Thursday, 02 Apr 2026 11:07 SGT
Thursday, 02 Apr 2026 11:07 SGT
Auto-refreshes every hour ⚠ Markets closed
07:00 SGT · MON–FRI
MARKET VERDICT
CAUTIOUS — Selective Risk Taking
Markets are stressed but not in crisis. Opportunities exist but selectivity is essential.
MARKET TONE
RISK-ON
REGIME
STRESSED
FRAGILITY
68
STRESSED
RAG SIGNALS
10·12·38
RED · AMBER · GREEN
FEAR & GREED INDEX
😟
41
Fear
Extreme FearFearNeutralGreedExtreme Greed
COMPONENTS
Volatility15
VIXY +6.8% vs 50D MA
Momentum12
SPY -3.4% vs 125D MA
Breadth25
15/60 above 50D MA
Safe Haven31
TLT vs SPY 20D: +0.5%
Junk Bonds62
HYG vs IEF 20D: +0.8%
Strength48
29/60 within 5% of 52W high
Put/Call Proxy96
UVXY/VIXY ratio: 1.50
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
➤
Favour quality over momentum — reduce high-beta positions
➤
Increase diversification — correlation is rising, reducing hedge value
➤
Monitor fragility leaders — highest-scoring instruments signal contagion risk
➤
Consider defensive sectors — utilities, healthcare, short-duration bonds
📈 Top Opportunities (MTD)
Brazil
EWZ
+6.2%
MTD  ·  YTD: +20.8%
WTI Oil
USO
+4.8%
MTD  ·  YTD: +79.4%
Singapore
EWS
+3.9%
MTD  ·  YTD: +3.5%
⚠ Top Risks (Fragility)
South Africa
EZA
81/100
Fragility score  ·  CRISIS
Germany
EWG
80/100
Fragility score  ·  CRISIS
India
INDA
79/100
Fragility score  ·  CRISIS
Verdict = BK proprietary synthesis of Market Tone + Regime State Machine + Fragility Score · For informational purposes only · Not investment advice
MARKET TONE
RISK-ON
10
RED
12
AMBER
38
GREEN
60
TOTAL
Top 5 MTD Gainers  (1-Month)
Brazil
+6.23%
WTI Oil
+4.81%
Singapore
+3.87%
Energy
+3.21%
Taiwan
+2.81%
Top 5 MTD Losers  (1-Month)
Natural Gas
-12.42%
Defence Bull 3x
-11.32%
Silver
-10.90%
Gold
-6.22%
Bitcoin
-5.22%
AssetTickerCCYTrend 20D1W1M3MYTDSignal
EQUITIES — US BROAD
Nasdaq 100QQQUSD+3.86%-2.04%-7.05%-4.76%● AMBER
Russell 2000IWMUSD+2.66%+1.05%-5.08%+1.56%● AMBER
S&P 500SPYUSD+3.34%-1.36%-5.33%-3.65%● GREEN
World (ACWI)ACWIUSD+3.81%-0.56%-4.79%-1.29%● GREEN
EQUITIES — US SECTORS
EnergyXLEUSD-5.74%+3.21%+17.51%+32.76%● GREEN
FinancialsXLFUSD+3.41%+1.77%-7.20%-9.27%● AMBER
Real Estate (REITs)VNQUSD+2.32%-2.22%-0.81%+1.67%● GREEN
UtilitiesXLUUSD+1.14%-0.15%+7.16%+8.77%● GREEN
EQUITIES — DEVELOPED MARKETS
AustraliaEWAUSD+3.23%-1.16%-1.16%+7.25%● GREEN
Europe Dev (EAFE)EFAUSD+5.13%+1.18%-3.03%+2.69%● GREEN
EurozoneEZUUSD+5.43%+0.84%-5.49%-0.90%● AMBER
GermanyEWGUSD+5.57%-0.35%-7.46%-5.41%● AMBER
JapanEWJUSD+6.20%+2.72%+0.45%+7.11%● AMBER
SingaporeEWSUSD+3.26%+3.87%-1.21%+3.53%● GREEN
UKEWUUSD+5.05%+1.02%-0.19%+5.39%● GREEN
EQUITIES — GLOBAL INDICES
Euro STOXX 50FEZUSD+5.42%+0.66%-6.41%-1.95%● AMBER
FTSE 100 (UK)FLGBUSD+4.84%+0.97%-0.70%+4.65%● GREEN
Hang Seng / HKEWHUSD+3.89%+1.62%-1.98%+9.41%● GREEN
Nikkei 225 (Japan)DBJPUSD+5.36%+2.61%+4.52%+9.63%● GREEN
EQUITIES — EMERGING MARKETS
BrazilEWZUSD+4.75%+6.23%+0.66%+20.77%● GREEN
ChinaFXIUSD+2.04%-1.66%-12.80%-7.13%● AMBER
EM BroadEEMUSD+3.68%+0.49%-5.31%+4.61%● AMBER
IndiaINDAUSD+1.94%-3.73%-9.49%-13.58%● RED
KoreaEWYUSD+4.33%+2.20%+1.38%+29.83%● RED
South AfricaEZAUSD+7.15%-0.29%-13.52%+0.03%● RED
TaiwanEWTUSD+3.21%+2.81%+2.71%+12.89%● GREEN
DEFENCE & GEOPOLITICAL
Defence Bull 3xDFENUSD+10.20%-11.32%-15.38%+5.76%● RED
S&P Aerospace & DefenceXARUSD+3.74%-3.19%-6.42%+7.80%● AMBER
US Aerospace & DefenceITAUSD+3.52%-3.33%-3.86%+4.24%● AMBER
FIXED INCOME & CREDIT
Cash (T-Bills)BILUSD-0.25%-0.09%+0.31%+0.59%● GREEN
EM Local CurrencyEMLCUSD+0.88%-0.87%-4.45%-1.86%● GREEN
EM USD SovereignsEMBUSD+0.98%-1.03%-2.08%-1.69%● GREEN
HY CreditHYGUSD+0.83%+0.03%-1.08%-0.59%● GREEN
IG CreditLQDUSD+0.97%+0.08%-1.12%-0.68%● GREEN
Senior LoansBKLNUSD+0.59%+0.32%-0.30%-1.08%● GREEN
Treasuries 1-3YSHYUSD-0.08%-0.22%-0.16%-0.04%● GREEN
Treasuries 20Y+TLTUSD+0.72%-0.82%-0.85%-0.32%● GREEN
Treasuries 7-10YIEFUSD+0.47%-0.68%-0.39%-0.56%● GREEN
US AggregateAGGUSD+0.47%-0.29%-0.52%-0.25%● GREEN
US TIPSTIPUSD+0.63%-0.51%-0.14%+0.41%● GREEN
FIXED INCOME — EUR & GLOBAL
Global AggregateBNDWUSD+0.57%-0.16%-0.67%-0.19%● GREEN
Intl High YieldIHYUSD+0.73%-0.63%-3.49%-1.86%● GREEN
USD IG Credit (Int)IGIBUSD+0.72%-0.30%-1.04%-0.79%● GREEN
COMMODITIES
AgricultureDBAUSD-0.26%+1.31%+4.75%+6.19%● GREEN
Broad CommoditiesDBCUSD-1.44%-0.62%+13.36%+28.26%● GREEN
Copper MinersCOPXUSD+9.13%-1.99%-17.06%+8.86%● RED
GoldGLDUSD+5.58%-6.22%-11.71%+10.47%● AMBER
Natural GasUNGUSD-7.00%-12.42%-24.17%-6.85%● RED
SilverSLVUSD+7.41%-10.90%-35.46%+5.77%● RED
WTI OilUSOUSD-0.09%+4.81%+56.80%+79.42%● GREEN
CRYPTO
BitcoinBTC-USDUSD+0.74%-5.22%-20.99%-24.70%● RED
FX
AUD/USDAUDUSD=XAUD-0.02%-3.41%-2.18%+2.81%● GREEN
EUR/USDEURUSD=XEUR+0.12%+0.05%-3.58%-1.69%● GREEN
GBP/USDGBPUSD=XGBP-0.69%-1.03%-4.21%-1.66%● GREEN
US Dollar IndexUUPUSD-0.40%+0.18%+4.29%+2.59%● GREEN
USD/CNYCNY=XCNY-0.38%+0.27%-1.01%-1.60%● GREEN
USD/JPYJPY=XJPY-0.18%+0.22%+4.13%+1.92%● GREEN
USD/SGDSGD=XSGD+0.09%+0.86%+2.04%+0.24%● GREEN
VOLATILITY
Ultra VIX Short-TermUVXYUSD-18.05%-0.59%+37.81%+40.61%● RED
VIX Short-Term FuturesVIXYUSD-12.19%+0.75%+27.79%+30.93%● RED
38
VOL RISING ⬆
Change > +5%
4
VOL STABLE →
−5% to +5%
18
VOL EASING ⬇
Change < −5%
AssetTickerVol 20DVol 1M Ago30D ChangeMax DDSharpeSignal
EQUITIES — US BROAD
Nasdaq 100QQQ23.6%14.9%⬆⬆ +58.8%-7.9%0.01● AMBER
Russell 2000IWM26.1%17.6%⬆⬆ +48.3%-7.3%0.53● AMBER
S&P 500SPY19.2%10.9%⬆⬆ +75.8%-5.5%0.01● GREEN
World (ACWI)ACWI20.4%13.4%⬆⬆ +52.6%-6.0%0.27● GREEN
EQUITIES — US SECTORS
EnergyXLE23.0%14.6%⬆⬆ +58.2%-5.7%1.80● GREEN
FinancialsXLF13.8%17.7%⬇ -21.8%-11.9%-0.77● AMBER
Real Estate (REITs)VNQ9.6%8.0%⬆ +19.9%-6.2%-0.36● GREEN
UtilitiesXLU5.2%9.5%⬇ -44.9%-2.7%0.62● GREEN
EQUITIES — DEVELOPED MARKETS
AustraliaEWA15.8%19.3%⬇ -17.8%-6.9%0.26● GREEN
Europe Dev (EAFE)EFA21.0%17.3%⬆⬆ +21.2%-6.7%0.51● GREEN
EurozoneEZU24.2%19.3%⬆⬆ +25.0%-8.2%0.22● AMBER
GermanyEWG21.1%19.3%⬆ +9.3%-9.8%-0.70● AMBER
JapanEWJ25.1%22.3%⬆ +12.3%-8.0%0.78● AMBER
SingaporeEWS13.1%13.7%→ -3.9%-3.2%0.18● GREEN
UKEWU17.0%15.3%⬆ +11.6%-4.8%0.94● GREEN
EQUITIES — GLOBAL INDICES
Euro STOXX 50FEZ24.3%20.1%⬆⬆ +20.8%-8.9%0.17● AMBER
FTSE 100 (UK)FLGB17.7%14.2%⬆⬆ +25.0%-5.1%0.88● GREEN
Hang Seng / HKEWH20.1%12.9%⬆⬆ +56.4%-4.0%0.74● GREEN
Nikkei 225 (Japan)DBJP21.6%20.9%→ +3.5%-4.7%1.43● GREEN
EQUITIES — EMERGING MARKETS
BrazilEWZ28.2%29.0%→ -2.8%-3.1%1.68● GREEN
ChinaFXI18.8%16.0%⬆ +17.1%-13.9%-0.65● AMBER
EM BroadEEM25.5%27.0%⬇ -5.7%-9.6%0.78● AMBER
IndiaINDA22.4%15.0%⬆⬆ +49.3%-15.5%-1.58● RED
KoreaEWY50.0%61.4%⬇ -18.6%-16.6%1.78● RED
South AfricaEZA35.5%39.0%⬇ -8.8%-15.7%0.98● RED
TaiwanEWT20.4%30.1%⬇ -32.4%-6.9%1.08● GREEN
DEFENCE & GEOPOLITICAL
Defence Bull 3xDFEN102.7%60.7%⬆⬆ +69.3%-30.7%0.65● RED
S&P Aerospace & DefenceXAR43.5%21.7%⬆⬆ +100.7%-11.2%0.68● AMBER
US Aerospace & DefenceITA34.1%20.7%⬆⬆ +64.6%-10.7%0.60● AMBER
FIXED INCOME & CREDIT
Cash (T-Bills)BIL1.7%0.2%⬆⬆ +1.56pp-0.3%-5.00● GREEN
EM Local CurrencyEMLC7.8%9.7%⬇ -19.9%-5.1%-0.21● GREEN
EM USD SovereignsEMB5.7%4.7%⬆⬆ +22.7%-3.6%0.11● GREEN
HY CreditHYG6.6%4.2%⬆⬆ +57.4%-1.5%-0.59● GREEN
IG CreditLQD6.1%4.9%⬆⬆ +24.3%-2.4%-0.32● GREEN
Senior LoansBKLN3.4%6.0%⬇ -43.1%-1.4%-0.96● GREEN
Treasuries 1-3YSHY2.4%1.2%⬆⬆ +1.24pp-0.8%-1.95● GREEN
Treasuries 20Y+TLT9.9%8.3%⬆ +19.1%-4.7%-0.10● GREEN
Treasuries 7-10YIEF5.8%4.1%⬆⬆ +42.1%-2.7%-0.35● GREEN
US AggregateAGG4.2%3.3%⬆⬆ +28.1%-2.1%-0.36● GREEN
US TIPSTIP4.0%2.4%⬆⬆ +1.62pp-1.4%-0.75● GREEN
FIXED INCOME — EUR & GLOBAL
Global AggregateBNDW3.5%3.2%⬆ +9.4%-2.1%-0.83● GREEN
Intl High YieldIHY8.0%5.1%⬆⬆ +57.4%-3.9%-0.89● GREEN
USD IG Credit (Int)IGIB5.5%3.6%⬆⬆ +51.5%-2.3%-0.34● GREEN
COMMODITIES
AgricultureDBA7.8%6.5%⬆⬆ +20.5%-0.8%0.33● GREEN
Broad CommoditiesDBC9.9%19.2%⬇ -48.4%-2.0%1.65● GREEN
Copper MinersCOPX53.1%44.1%⬆⬆ +20.3%-18.3%1.64● RED
GoldGLD25.0%24.3%→ +2.7%-11.7%1.34● AMBER
Natural GasUNG33.8%40.7%⬇ -17.1%-32.4%-0.15● RED
SilverSLV47.0%55.4%⬇ -15.2%-35.5%1.40● RED
WTI OilUSO39.3%61.4%⬇ -36.0%-4.4%1.53● GREEN
CRYPTO
BitcoinBTC-USD23.7%47.6%⬇ -50.3%-46.4%-1.42● RED
FX
AUD/USDAUDUSD=X9.3%9.9%⬇ -5.9%-3.4%-0.01● GREEN
EUR/USDEURUSD=X8.0%6.1%⬆⬆ +29.7%-3.9%-1.14● GREEN
GBP/USDGBPUSD=X7.0%5.7%⬆⬆ +24.1%-4.2%-1.20● GREEN
US Dollar IndexUUP6.2%4.2%⬆⬆ +49.6%-0.9%0.22● GREEN
USD/CNYCNY=X1.7%3.4%⬇ -48.2%-4.5%-3.32● GREEN
USD/JPYJPY=X7.3%5.6%⬆⬆ +30.5%-0.5%0.59● GREEN
USD/SGDSGD=X5.1%4.4%⬆ +15.7%-1.6%-1.05● GREEN
VOLATILITY
Ultra VIX Short-TermUVXY88.2%121.1%⬇ -27.2%-41.9%-0.24● RED
VIX Short-Term FuturesVIXY58.0%77.9%⬇ -25.6%-25.0%-0.26● RED
⬆⬆ Vol rising ≥+20%  ·  ⬆ +5% to +20%  ·  → stable −5% to +5%  ·  ⬇ easing <−5%  ·  Sharpe = 1Y excess return / vol (rf=4.5%)
SYSTEM FRAGILITY TREND — LAST 2 YEARS
CURRENT
68
2Y PEAK
76
2Y AVG
52
2Y LOW
43
7050025751002024-112024-122025-022025-032025-052025-062025-072025-092025-102025-112026-012026-02
■ CRISIS ≥70■ STRESSED 50–70■ CALM <50Dashed lines = regime thresholds
SYSTEM FRAGILITY
68/ 1000100
STRESSED
CRISIS
25
Score ≥ 70
STRESSED
31
Score 50–70
CALM
4
Score < 50
TOTAL
60
Instruments
⚠ Top 5 Most Fragile
South Africa
81
CRISIS
Germany
80
CRISIS
India
79
CRISIS
Eurozone
79
CRISIS
Intl High Yield
79
CRISIS
AssetTickerScoreBarStatusTop DriverDrawdownVolatilityTail RiskTrendContagionVol Stress
South AfricaEZA81
CRISISTail Risk+65.3+60.0+80.0+0.0+32.6+11.1
GermanyEWG80
CRISISTail Risk+58.5+60.0+80.0+60.0+22.9-12.7
IndiaINDA79
CRISISVolatility+54.3+60.0+39.8+60.0+29.5+36.7
EurozoneEZU79
CRISISTail Risk+53.6+60.0+61.8+60.0+21.6-12.7
Intl High YieldIHY79
CRISISDrawdown+88.0+46.8+39.0+60.0+28.1+17.5
Euro STOXX 50FEZ78
CRISISVolatility+57.2+60.0+53.4+60.0+25.0-12.3
EM USD SovereignsEMB78
CRISISDrawdown+88.0+53.7+21.2+60.0+27.3+11.3
Europe Dev (EAFE)EFA78
CRISISTail Risk+55.4+60.0+80.0+0.0+20.1-6.8
HY CreditHYG77
CRISISDrawdown+88.0+55.5+32.6+60.0+25.7-2.6
World (ACWI)ACWI77
CRISISDrawdown+88.0+49.9+27.5+60.0+22.1+30.2
EM Local CurrencyEMLC77
CRISISTrend+49.5+47.1+42.0+60.0+39.0+1.5
Senior LoansBKLN77
CRISISDrawdown+88.0+60.0+80.0+0.0-4.2-13.5
SilverSLV76
CRISISDrawdown+88.0+44.3+80.0+0.0+20.4+6.8
EM BroadEEM76
CRISISTail Risk+50.1+60.0+73.5+0.0+20.6-1.9
Treasuries 1-3YSHY76
CRISISDrawdown+88.0+51.8+31.6+0.0+72.0+29.6
GoldGLD76
CRISISDrawdown+77.5+60.0+55.2+0.0+16.9-1.3
UKEWU75
CRISISTail Risk+48.5+60.0+70.7+0.0+29.5-7.9
JapanEWJ75
CRISISTail Risk+40.4+60.0+62.5+0.0+25.9+0.7
FTSE 100 (UK)FLGB74
CRISISVolatility+51.5+60.0+55.9+0.0+28.6-12.5
USD IG Credit (Int)IGIB73
CRISISTrend+48.4+39.0+19.9+60.0+16.7+7.1
BitcoinBTC-USD73
CRISISDrawdown+75.2-1.4+33.9+60.0+17.6+2.2
Global AggregateBNDW72
CRISISTrend+44.8+36.0+13.9+60.0+24.6+7.1
FinancialsXLF71
CRISISDrawdown+88.0+14.7+24.7+60.0-2.7-6.8
KoreaEWY71
CRISISTail Risk+28.9+60.0+80.0+0.0+5.4-4.7
S&P 500SPY70
CRISISDrawdown+75.9+29.8+11.1+60.0-3.1+38.8
Defence Bull 3xDFEN70
STRESSEDDrawdown+66.2+30.6+15.2+60.0+10.2-10.6
SingaporeEWS69
STRESSEDVolatility+14.9+40.0+22.5+0.0+16.4+5.0
Treasuries 7-10YIEF69
STRESSEDTrend+15.2+19.7+9.8+60.0+40.3+26.7
BrazilEWZ69
STRESSEDTail Risk-17.8+54.5+64.9+0.0+47.3+5.2
USD/CNYCNY=X69
STRESSEDContagion+0.0+45.9+34.5+0.0+72.0-4.8
S&P Aerospace & DefenceXAR68
STRESSEDDrawdown+57.7+38.4+43.8+0.0+4.9-8.9
AustraliaEWA67
STRESSEDVolatility+28.0+57.6+35.2+0.0+16.4-8.2
IG CreditLQD67
STRESSEDTrend+10.6+30.9+18.2+60.0+13.4-4.7
US Aerospace & DefenceITA67
STRESSEDDrawdown+74.3+31.3+15.7+0.0+9.2-12.2
US AggregateAGG67
STRESSEDTrend+22.9+21.1+6.0+60.0+15.3+9.0
Nasdaq 100QQQ66
STRESSEDTrend+43.4+20.3+0.3+60.0+10.4+14.8
TaiwanEWT65
STRESSEDTail Risk+23.0+33.5+35.0+0.0+17.3+3.7
Copper MinersCOPX65
STRESSEDVolatility+15.0+40.0+28.2+0.0+26.8-0.4
Nikkei 225 (Japan)DBJP65
STRESSEDTail Risk+14.8+30.6+31.9+0.0+27.0+3.0
US TIPSTIP64
STRESSEDTrend+13.6+19.2+1.3+60.0+6.6+14.6
ChinaFXI64
STRESSEDTrend+22.2+10.8+5.2+60.0+29.3-9.6
Cash (T-Bills)BIL64
STRESSEDDrawdown+88.0+60.0+80.0+0.0+0.0+40.0
Russell 2000IWM64
STRESSEDTrend+18.0+24.4+0.9+60.0+14.9-5.9
Real Estate (REITs)VNQ63
STRESSEDTrend+11.9+13.2+0.8+60.0+12.0+11.5
Broad CommoditiesDBC61
STRESSEDTail Risk-16.2+45.6+80.0+0.0-14.6-0.8
Treasuries 20Y+TLT60
STRESSEDTrend-6.1+9.0+0.0+60.0+8.8-3.7
Natural GasUNG58
STRESSEDTail Risk-5.9-11.1+80.0+3.3+0.0+3.2
WTI OilUSO58
STRESSEDVolatility-27.6+60.0+58.7+0.0-12.1-10.6
USD/JPYJPY=X58
STRESSEDContagion+0.0-1.4-5.5+0.0+72.0-3.5
USD/SGDSGD=X58
STRESSEDContagion+0.0+18.4+4.5+0.0+26.3+11.3
UtilitiesXLU57
STRESSEDVolatility+0.0+21.8+21.4+0.0-16.2+14.9
AUD/USDAUDUSD=X56
STRESSEDVolatility+0.0+21.7+13.5+0.0+0.0+10.9
Hang Seng / HKEWH55
STRESSEDVol Stress-9.4+19.8+2.2+0.0+17.7+27.5
GBP/USDGBPUSD=X54
STRESSEDVolatility+0.0+30.6+4.0+0.0+0.0-8.2
EUR/USDEURUSD=X51
STRESSEDVolatility+0.0+14.0+5.0+0.0-12.1+3.4
US Dollar IndexUUP51
STRESSEDVolatility-7.8+11.3+6.3+0.0+0.0-0.1
VIX Short-Term FuturesVIXY45
CALMTail Risk-53.1+17.3+18.4-11.1+0.0-3.7
Ultra VIX Short-TermUVXY45
CALMTail Risk-48.9+16.9+24.5-19.0+0.0-6.1
EnergyXLE43
CALMVolatility+0.0+24.2+5.5+0.0-30.5-6.6
AgricultureDBA38
CALMTrend-28.9-12.6-30.2+0.0-17.5-11.1
BK Fragility Framework · Drawdown 22% + CVaR 20% + Contagion 18% + Volatility 15% + Trend 15% + Vol Stress 10% · CRISIS ≥70 · STRESSED 50–70 · CALM <50
CORRELATION WINDOW
60D
Rolling daily returns
INSTRUMENTS
20
Key representatives
AVG CORRELATION
0.16
Ex-diagonal (high = contagion risk)
CROSS-ASSET CORRELATION MATRIX — 60D
S&P 500Nasdaq 100Europe DevEuro STOXX 5EM BroadChinaIndiaJapanEnergyFinancialsDefenceTreasuries 1Treasuries 2HY CreditGoldWTI OilBitcoinUSD IndexEUR/USDVIX FuturesS&P 5001.000.970.830.830.810.700.700.72-0.160.700.640.180.150.800.33-0.500.61-0.46-0.13-0.88Nasdaq 1000.971.000.780.790.790.690.650.67-0.210.610.620.130.100.760.31-0.460.61-0.45-0.13-0.84Europe Dev0.830.781.000.970.910.730.740.90-0.110.480.580.420.360.800.47-0.560.45-0.64-0.08-0.77Euro STOXX 500.830.790.971.000.910.740.770.81-0.160.500.530.400.350.820.38-0.600.39-0.66-0.11-0.79EM Broad0.810.790.910.911.000.770.690.80-0.040.390.630.410.320.790.48-0.540.39-0.60-0.14-0.73China0.700.690.730.740.771.000.510.62-0.030.300.490.420.330.700.44-0.230.37-0.44-0.19-0.59India0.700.650.740.770.690.511.000.59-0.310.560.340.350.310.650.15-0.580.27-0.44-0.15-0.62Japan0.720.670.900.810.800.620.591.00-0.060.420.550.280.230.610.53-0.450.50-0.450.04-0.61Energy-0.16-0.21-0.11-0.16-0.04-0.03-0.31-0.061.00-0.20-0.10-0.18-0.19-0.070.280.34-0.020.04-0.130.12Financials0.700.610.480.500.390.300.560.42-0.201.000.32-0.020.010.48-0.04-0.350.53-0.14-0.12-0.64Defence0.640.620.580.530.630.490.340.55-0.100.321.000.200.150.530.50-0.240.39-0.33-0.05-0.45Treasuries 10Y0.180.130.420.400.410.420.350.28-0.18-0.020.201.000.930.550.20-0.37-0.09-0.35-0.16-0.22Treasuries 20Y0.150.100.360.350.320.330.310.23-0.190.010.150.931.000.510.01-0.42-0.09-0.34-0.24-0.23HY Credit0.800.760.800.820.790.700.650.61-0.070.480.530.550.511.000.29-0.590.41-0.56-0.32-0.79Gold0.330.310.470.380.480.440.150.530.28-0.040.500.200.010.291.000.190.18-0.290.15-0.13WTI Oil-0.50-0.46-0.56-0.60-0.54-0.23-0.58-0.450.34-0.35-0.24-0.37-0.42-0.590.191.00-0.200.440.070.66Bitcoin0.610.610.450.390.390.370.270.50-0.020.530.39-0.09-0.090.410.18-0.201.00-0.17-0.19-0.55USD Index-0.46-0.45-0.64-0.66-0.60-0.44-0.44-0.450.04-0.14-0.33-0.35-0.34-0.56-0.290.44-0.171.000.000.42EUR/USD-0.13-0.13-0.08-0.11-0.14-0.19-0.150.04-0.13-0.12-0.05-0.16-0.24-0.320.150.07-0.190.001.000.26VIX Futures-0.88-0.84-0.77-0.79-0.73-0.59-0.62-0.610.12-0.64-0.45-0.22-0.23-0.79-0.130.66-0.550.420.261.00
-1.00+1.0
STRONGEST CORRELATIONS
Europe Dev vs Euro STOXX 50
+0.97
S&P 500 vs Nasdaq 100
+0.97
Treasuries 10Y vs Treasuries 20Y
+0.93
Europe Dev vs EM Broad
+0.91
Euro STOXX 50 vs EM Broad
+0.91
Europe Dev vs Japan
+0.90
S&P 500 vs VIX Futures
-0.88
Nasdaq 100 vs VIX Futures
-0.84
HOW TO READ
■ Red = move together (+1.0)
■ White = no relationship (0.0)
■ Blue = move opposite (−1.0)

High average correlation = contagion risk
Diversification works when colours are mixed
60-day window captures current market regime
Correlation = 60-day rolling Pearson correlation of daily returns · Key 20 instruments selected as representatives of each asset class
RELATIVE STRENGTH RANKINGS — BY ASSET CLASS
EQUITIES — US BROAD
🥇
Russell 2000
+1.0%
🥈
World (ACWI)
-0.6%
🥉
S&P 500
-1.4%
4
Nasdaq 100
-2.0%
Best: +1.0%Worst: -2.0%
EQUITIES — US SECTORS
🥇
Energy
+3.2%
🥈
Financials
+1.8%
🥉
Utilities
-0.1%
4
Real Estate (REITs)
-2.2%
Best: +3.2%Worst: -2.2%
EQUITIES — DEVELOPED MARKETS
🥇
Singapore
+3.9%
🥈
Japan
+2.7%
🥉
Europe Dev (EAFE)
+1.2%
4
UK
+1.0%
5
Eurozone
+0.8%
6
Germany
-0.3%
7
Australia
-1.2%
Best: +3.9%Worst: -1.2%
EQUITIES — GLOBAL INDICES
🥇
Nikkei 225 (Japan)
+2.6%
🥈
Hang Seng / HK
+1.6%
🥉
FTSE 100 (UK)
+1.0%
4
Euro STOXX 50
+0.7%
Best: +2.6%Worst: +0.7%
EQUITIES — EMERGING MARKETS
🥇
Brazil
+6.2%
🥈
Taiwan
+2.8%
🥉
Korea
+2.2%
4
EM Broad
+0.5%
5
South Africa
-0.3%
6
China
-1.7%
7
India
-3.7%
Best: +6.2%Worst: -3.7%
DEFENCE & GEOPOLITICAL
🥇
S&P Aerospace & Defence
-3.2%
🥈
US Aerospace & Defence
-3.3%
🥉
Defence Bull 3x
-11.3%
Best: -3.2%Worst: -11.3%
FIXED INCOME & CREDIT
🥇
Senior Loans
+0.3%
🥈
IG Credit
+0.1%
🥉
HY Credit
+0.0%
4
Cash (T-Bills)
-0.1%
5
Treasuries 1-3Y
-0.2%
6
US Aggregate
-0.3%
7
US TIPS
-0.5%
8
Treasuries 7-10Y
-0.7%
9
Treasuries 20Y+
-0.8%
10
EM Local Currency
-0.9%
11
EM USD Sovereigns
-1.0%
Best: +0.3%Worst: -1.0%
FIXED INCOME — EUR & GLOBAL
🥇
Global Aggregate
-0.2%
🥈
USD IG Credit (Int)
-0.3%
🥉
Intl High Yield
-0.6%
Best: -0.2%Worst: -0.6%
COMMODITIES
🥇
WTI Oil
+4.8%
🥈
Agriculture
+1.3%
🥉
Broad Commodities
-0.6%
4
Copper Miners
-2.0%
5
Gold
-6.2%
6
Silver
-10.9%
7
Natural Gas
-12.4%
Best: +4.8%Worst: -12.4%
CRYPTO
🥇
Bitcoin
-5.2%
Best: -5.2%Worst: -5.2%
FX
🥇
USD/SGD
+0.9%
🥈
USD/CNY
+0.3%
🥉
USD/JPY
+0.2%
4
US Dollar Index
+0.2%
5
EUR/USD
+0.0%
6
GBP/USD
-1.0%
7
AUD/USD
-3.4%
Best: +0.9%Worst: -3.4%
VOLATILITY
🥇
VIX Short-Term Futures
+0.8%
🥈
Ultra VIX Short-Term
-0.6%
Best: +0.8%Worst: -0.6%
CURRENT MARKET REGIME
STRESSED
Elevated volatility or meaningful drawdown detected. Markets are pricing in uncertainty. Monitor closely.
DAYS IN REGIME
2
consecutive trading days
VOL DRIVER — WORLD (ACWI)
19.8%
annualised vol
At 90th percentile of 10-year history
DRAWDOWN DRIVER — WORLD (ACWI)
-6.0%
from 1Y peak
67% of history had smaller drawdowns
REGIME TIMELINE — LAST 2 YEARS
■ CALM■ STRESSED■ CRISIS
2024-112024-122025-012025-022025-032025-042025-052025-062025-072025-082025-092025-102025-112025-122026-012026-022026-03
REGIME STATISTICS — 10 YEAR HISTORY
RegimeDays% TimeAvg Duration
Calm1,42563.3%57 days
Stressed54524.2%12 days
Crisis28012.4%16 days
CRISIS EPISODES — WORLD DRAWDOWN < −15%
StartEndPeak DD
Apr 2025Apr 2025-16.5%
May 2022Jun 2023-26.4%
Mar 2020Jun 2020-33.5%
Regime = deterministic state machine on ACWI (World ETF) · Crisis: vol ≥ 90th pct OR dd ≤ 10th pct · Stressed: vol ≥ 70th pct OR dd ≤ 30th pct · Ex-ante expanding quantile thresholds (no look-ahead bias)
REGIME-AWARE ALLOCATION
STRESSED REGIME
Markets are in a Stressed regime. Volatility is rising across 40 instruments, led by Brazil on the upside. The highest fragility risk is concentrated in South Africa. The suggested allocation below reflects a stressed regime posture — balancing defence with selective risk-taking.
SUGGESTED PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION
Cash & T-Bills
20%
Gold
15%
Govt Bonds (Long)
20%
Equities (Quality)
25%
IG Credit
15%
Alternatives
5%
Allocation based on current regime: Stressed · Rebalance as regime shifts · Not investment advice
BEST OPPORTUNITY THIS MONTH
Brazil
+6.2%
MTD Return (1-Month)
HIGHEST RISK TO MONITOR
Natural Gas
-12.4%
MTD Return (1-Month)
INSTRUMENTS WITH RISING VOL
40
of 60 instruments showing elevated volatility vs 1M ago
Edge = regime-aware portfolio intelligence · Allocation shifts automatically as market regime changes · For informational purposes only · Not investment advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results
BK
Bhavesh Kannan
Founder · BKIQ Markets
Singapore
INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHY
"Markets are not random — they move in regimes. Understanding the current regime is the single most important edge an investor can have."
I believe that most market participants focus too heavily on returns and not enough on risk regimes. A portfolio that performs well in a Calm regime can be catastrophically exposed in a Crisis regime. The BK Fragility Framework was built to solve this problem — to give investors early warning before fragility becomes crisis, and to provide a disciplined, data-driven framework for navigating regime transitions.
THE BK FRAGILITY FRAMEWORK
The BK Fragility Framework is a proprietary multi-factor risk scoring system that measures market stress across 6 dimensions, weighted by their empirical contribution to systemic risk:
Drawdown
22%
Distance from rolling peak
CVaR / Tail Risk
20%
Expected loss in worst 5% of days
Contagion
18%
Correlation to world market (ACWI)
Volatility
15%
20-day realised annualised vol
Trend
15%
Distance below 200-day moving average
Volume Stress
10%
Liquidity dry-up or panic spike
Scores are computed using robust time-series z-scores mapped to 0–100 via logistic function with EWMA smoothing. CRISIS ≥ 70 · STRESSED 50–70 · CALM < 50
ABOUT BKIQ MARKETS
BKIQ Markets is a Singapore-based market intelligence platform delivering daily institutional-grade analysis across 60 instruments and 12 asset classes. The platform monitors global equities, fixed income, commodities, FX, crypto and volatility through 6 analytical lenses — Performance, Risk, Fragility, Analysis, Regime and Edge.

Built for family office analysts, private bankers, wealth managers and institutional traders who need actionable intelligence delivered before markets open.
Connect with me on LinkedIn
LinkedIn Profile
© 2026 BKIQ Markets · Singapore · For informational purposes only · Not investment advice
Returns are price return in USD (ETF prices) · FX returns reflect USD rate changes · Trend = 20-day normalised sparkline
Signal: RED < −15% · AMBER −15% to −7% · GREEN > −7% from 52-week high
Fragility: CRISIS ≥70 · STRESSED 50–70 · CALM <50 · BK Fragility Framework
Generated: 2026-04-02T11:07:35 SGT · Prices via Yahoo Finance · Auto-refreshes every hour
BK
Market Intelligence · Singapore